We arrived at the February 25 and hoped the drop in the euro area 132xx has not occurred. We try
then analyzed the situation with the elements in our possession, to try not to make mistakes from hasty conclusions.
is generally true that if a target is breached, then the secondary level is very strong and therefore we expect a contrary force. In this case, the non-descent on 132xx mean that the market has decreed that wants to go.
However, in our possession, we have:
1) 13765 is the key to this level move. The time is later than March 4, 2011. This price has been beaten, then we're back under, then over again, and again below. In essence, the mkt is not left behind. Until March 4, then we know nothing, and could well do a fake out break of 13 861 and back again.
2) 13861 is currently the top to beat for declaring a rising euro. As long as it is not left behind or below, the possible shorts are good inputs 13800 area with high potential earnings. In fact, in the remote possibility that 13,861 was the actual top of the bounce off from 12,872, then the bottom of this cycle could be well into April, and with the possibility of descents IN 12872.
So, at this stage, I think, an attempt to short area 13800 is to be done, and I think that the market is trying. We
, operationally, we have already tried and according to our policy of money mgmt not increase the short and did not reopen until the new top.
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