Today I have the time to devote to this discussion, stimulated by a friend, I greet them.
who has a long-term strategy (I mean like mine I foresee a closure of one cycle of 15 years under the equality) must first be positioned in that way. The market is elephantine, is slow, it takes months to decide where to go.
often happens, especially to those who are in front of the computer all day, to be brought to change his mind every day, because the cycles of less pull from one direction and the other, in contrast with the idea of \u200b\u200blong. It often happens to be tempted to pick up the coins of smaller cycles, including trend with them, but in contrast with the long cycle. And often, it happens to go right at issue when in fact the cycle turn. We make two calculations
cyclical. Previous
cycle of 15-16 years, 1986 - 1995 to 2001 lasted 15 years, top after nine years
Current Cycle Current top
early 2001 2008 (after 7 years) attempt to repeat the top 15,143 in 2010 but aborted after 9 years. In short, I spent about 10 years, we are at 2 / 3 of the theoretical cycle.
What happened to 11875??
has closed a cycle of five years?
If so, then we hypothesize that:
1) the first cycle of 4-5 years 2001-2004-2005 (8220-13366-11640) 5146 UP DOWN 1726 points
2) the second cycle of 4-5 years is 2005-2008-2010 (11640-16037-11875) 4397 UP DOWN 4162 points
3) The third and, according to the previous cycle, last cycle has yet to top of 11875-14281 points UP 2406
according to this scheme , we therefore:
1) climb yet even to touch the maximum (I do not think so, but is an option) and this quickly, within the next year, because then we have the time of descent, in the third and final round to take a longer period of time just because you have to close the loop larger.
2) get a little more, perhaps already in the top 14281 ......
3) none of this as a closed ONLY 11,875 cycles at 10 years and this time we (I) care about why he decided to do a cycle of 20 years instead of 15. In this case, we are at the dawn of the second cycle in 10 years that will make a top more shifted to the right, for example, in 2014. For now, this scrap third possibility. There will be ways and techniques to see and confirm.
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